Abstract
BACKGROUND: Plasmodium blood-stage parasites balance asexual multiplication with gametocyte development. Few studies link these dynamics with parasite genetic markers in vivo; even fewer in longitudinally monitored infections. Environmental influences on gametocyte formation, such as mosquito exposure, may influence the parasite's investment in gametocyte production. METHODS: We investigated gametocyte production and asexual multiplication in two Plasmodium falciparum infected populations; a controlled human malaria infection (CHMI) study and a 28-day observational study in naturally infected individuals in Burkina Faso with controlled mosquito exposure. We measured gene transcript levels previously related to gametocyte formation (ap2-g, surfin1.2, surfin13.1, gexp-2) or inhibition of asexual multiplication (sir2a) and compared transcript levels to ring-stage parasite and mature gametocyte densities. FINDINGS: Three of the five markers (ap2-g, surfin1.2, surfin13.1) predicted peak gametocytaemia in the CHMI study. An increase in all five markers in natural infections was associated with an increase in mature gametocytes 14 days later; the effect of sir2a on future gametocytes was strongest (fold change = 1.65, IQR = 1.22-2.24, P = 0.004). Mosquito exposure was not associated with markers of gametocyte formation (ap2-g P = 0.277; sir2a P = 0.499) or carriage of mature gametocytes (P = 0.379). INTERPRETATION: All five parasite genetic markers predicted gametocyte formation over a single cycle of gametocyte formation and maturation in vivo; sir2a and ap2-g were most closely associated with gametocyte growth dynamics. We observed no evidence to support the hypothesis that exposure to Anopheles mosquito bites stimulates gametocyte formation. FUNDING: This work was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INDIE OPP1173572), the European Research Council fellowship (ERC-CoG 864180) and UKRI Medical Research Council (MR/T016272/1) and Wellcome Center (218676/Z/19/Z).
