Enduring feedback

Abstract

The central question in the paper by Morecroft (2017) is whether ‘structure drives behaviour’ also holds over a long time period, or, in other words, whether feedback structures shaping trends endure over time. Morecroft revisits a model of the oil industry originally developed in the late 1980s and, changing only initial parameter settings, concludes that the model is able to represent recent developments. The Limits to Growth model is another example of a feedback structure that can explain behaviour over decennia. The finding that feedback structure is enduring is good news for system dynamicists and increases our confidence in one of the field’s central assumptions. This paper discusses the modelling effort described from two perspectives: the process leading up to the final model structure and the wider implications of models that address long term real life problems, in particular for the field of system dynamics.