Randomness and the Madness of Crowds
Publication year
2016Publisher
Heidelberg, DE : Springer
ISBN
9783319262987
In
Landsman, K.; Wolde, E. van (ed.), The Challenge of Chance. A Multidisciplinary Approach from Science and the Humanities, pp. 67-89Publication type
Part of book or chapter of book
Display more detailsDisplay less details
Editor(s)
Landsman, K.
Wolde, E. van
Organization
Financiële economie en ondernemingsfinanciering
Book title
Landsman, K.; Wolde, E. van (ed.), The Challenge of Chance. A Multidisciplinary Approach from Science and the Humanities
Page start
p. 67
Page end
p. 89
Subject
Integrated Decision Making (ID)Abstract
Human interaction often appears to be random and at times even chaotic. We use game theory, the mathematical study of interactive decision making, to explain the role of rationality and randomness in strategic behavior. In many of these situations, humans deliberately create randomness as a best response and equilibrium strategy. Moreover, once out of equilibrium, individual beliefs about the real intentions of others introduce significant randomness into otherwise quite simple and deterministic situations of interaction. In a second step we discuss the role of randomness on financial markets, which are prototypical institutions for the aggregation of individual behavior. As in certain simple games, financial markets can produce outcomes that are close to perfect randomness. In fact, random walks in financial returns are considered by most scholars to be efficient and desirable. Finally, we apply game theoretical insights to behavior on financial markets and show how strategic speculation on 'greater fools' can create a 'madness of crowds' that often ends in chaotic swings, bubbles and crashes.
This item appears in the following Collection(s)
- Academic publications [245400]
- Electronic publications [132943]
- Nijmegen School of Management [18709]
- Open Access publications [106464]
Upload full text
Use your RU credentials (u/z-number and password) to log in with SURFconext to upload a file for processing by the repository team.