Recalibration of the delirium prediction model for ICU patients (PRE-DELIRIC): a multinational observational study
Publication year
2014Source
Intensive Care Medicine, 40, 3, (2014), pp. 361-9ISSN
Publication type
Article / Letter to editor

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Organization
Intensive Care
IQ Healthcare
Health Evidence
Journal title
Intensive Care Medicine
Volume
vol. 40
Issue
iss. 3
Page start
p. 361
Page end
p. 9
Subject
Radboudumc 0: Other Research RIHS: Radboud Institute for Health Sciences; Radboudumc 18: Healthcare improvement science RIHS: Radboud Institute for Health Sciences; Radboudumc 4: lnfectious Diseases and Global Health RIHS: Radboud Institute for Health Sciences; Radboudumc 4: lnfectious Diseases and Global Health RIMLS: Radboud Institute for Molecular Life SciencesAbstract
PURPOSE: Recalibration and determining discriminative power, internationally, of the existing delirium prediction model (PRE-DELIRIC) for intensive care patients. METHODS: A prospective multicenter cohort study was performed in eight intensive care units (ICUs) in six countries. The ten predictors (age, APACHE-II, urgent and admission category, infection, coma, sedation, morphine use, urea level, metabolic acidosis) were collected within 24 h after ICU admission. The confusion assessment method for the intensive care unit (CAM-ICU) was used to identify ICU delirium. CAM-ICU screening compliance and inter-rater reliability measurements were used to secure the quality of the data. RESULTS: A total of 2,852 adult ICU patients were screened of which 1,824 (64 %) were eligible for the study. Main reasons for exclusion were length of stay <1 day (19.1 %) and sustained coma (4.1 %). CAM-ICU compliance was mean (SD) 82 +/- 16 % and inter-rater reliability 0.87 +/- 0.17. The median delirium incidence was 22.5 % (IQR 12.8-36.6 %). Although the incidence of all ten predictors differed significantly between centers, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of the eight participating centers remained good: 0.77 (95 % CI 0.74-0.79). The linear predictor and intercept of the prediction rule were adjusted and resulted in improved re-calibration of the PRE-DELIRIC model. CONCLUSIONS: In this multinational study, we recalibrated the PRE-DELIRIC model. Despite differences in the incidence of predictors between the centers in the different countries, the performance of the PRE-DELIRIC-model remained good. Following validation of the PRE-DELIRIC model, it may facilitate implementation of strategies to prevent delirium and aid improvements in delirium management of ICU patients.
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- Faculty of Medical Sciences [80020]
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