Forecasting long memory left-right political orientations
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SourceInternational Journal of Forecasting, 15, 2, (1999), pp. 185-199
Article / Letter to editor
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SW OZ NISCO MT
International Journal of Forecasting
SubjectInequality Cohesion Rationalization; Ongelijkheid Cohesie Rationalisatie
This paper considers out-of-sample forecasting of left–right political orientations of party affiliates in the Netherlands, using weekly data from 973 independent national Dutch surveys conducted between 1978 and 1996. The orientations of left-wing and right-wing party affiliates tend to converge over time in the sense that the differences between the average positions tend to decline. The left–right series also reveal long-memory properties in the sense that shocks appear to be highly persistent. We develop forecasting models that account for these data features and we derive the relevant forecast intervals.
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