Causal knowledge and reasoning in decision making

Abstract

Normative causal decision theories argue that people should use their causal knowledge in decision making. Based on these ideas, we argue that causal knowledge and reasoning may support and thereby potentially improve decision making based on expected outcomes, narratives, and even cues. We will summarize findings from empirical research, which indicate that decision makers use their causal knowledge and reasoning when making a choice. Focusing on decision making in mental health, we will also show that at least sometimes the outcomes resulting from a chosen action can be improved by taking causal knowledge into account. In the second part of the chapter, we propose a structured process describing when and how decision makers should use causal knowledge and reasoning in decision making: the Causal-explanation-based Decision Making framework. Mental health will again be our exemplary domain. We will end by arguing that our model may serve as a blueprint for a rational model for clinical decision making, which may also guide future research.