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Title: Preoperative prediction of early mortality and morbidity in coronary bypass surgery.
Author(s): Wouters, S. ; Noyez, L. ; Verheugt, F.W.A. ; Brouwer, R.
Publication year: 2002
Source: Cardiovascular Surgery, vol. 10, iss. 5, (2002), pp. 500-505
ISSN: 0967-2109
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0967-2109(02)00081-9
Publication type: Article / Letter to editor

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item : https://hdl.handle.net/2066/127358   https://hdl.handle.net/2066/127358

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Subject: Heartfunction and circulation
Hartfunctie en circulatie
Organization: Cardiology
Cardio Thoracic Surgery
Journal title:
Cardiovascular Surgery
Volume: vol. 10
Issue: iss. 5
Page start: p. 500
Page end: p. 505
Classification: Blood VesselsCardiovascular Abnormalities (Non MeSH)Diagnosis, Cardiovascular (Non MeSH)Diagnosis, Computer-AssistedHeartHeart DiseasesSurgery, Cardiovascular (Non MeSH)Thoracic SurgeryVascular Diseases
Abstract:
OBJECTIVE: A scoring system to predict early mortality and morbidity in CABG, distinguishing low and high risk patients. METHODS: 563 patients (1998) served as development dataset, 969 patients as validation set. Univariate and logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors. RESULTS: Gender, hypertension, pulmonary disease, reoperation, age, operative status and left-ventricular function were predictive variables for early mortality. The area under the ROC curve was 0.81. We identified a low risk, mortality of 1.8% and a high-risk group, mortality of 13.4%. Diabetes, hypertension, kidney and lung disease, reoperation, operative status and left ventricular function were predictive variables for morbidity. The area under the ROC curve was 0.73. We identified a low risk, morbidity of 17%, and a high-risk group, morbidity of 41%. CONCLUSION: This scoring system is a simple system identifying a low and high-risk group for morbidity and early mortality.

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