Do We Measure Overconfidence? A Closer Look at the interval Production Task
Publication year
2016Source
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 128, (2016), pp. 121-133ISSN
Publication type
Article / Letter to editor
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Organization
Financiële economie en ondernemingsfinanciering
Journal title
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization
Volume
vol. 128
Languages used
English (eng)
Page start
p. 121
Page end
p. 133
Subject
Integrated Decision Making (ID)Abstract
The most common test for overconfidence in the form of miscalibration—the interval production task (IP)—is based on the assumption that people internalize requested confidence levels. We demonstrate experimentally that decision makers’ perceived confidence is, however, unaffected by variations in the requested confidence level. In addition, we find large heterogeneity in perceived confidence that the traditional IP measure fails to account for. We show that the alternative measure based on decision makers’ perceived confidence by contrast yields coherent, moderate overconfidence levels. Our evidence suggests that the consistency of the two measures is limited and that they are related to different individual characteristics.
This item appears in the following Collection(s)
- Academic publications [238441]
- Electronic publications [122518]
- Nijmegen School of Management [18274]
- Open Access publications [97513]
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